Companies · AI / ML

Goodfire AI, Inc.

San Francisco · AI / ML · refined from filed group “Other Technology

Diligence memoA one-page analyst read on Goodfire AI, Inc. — recommendation, valuation, rhythm, risks.
$202.0M
Total raised · real
2
Rounds
2.9×
Latest step-up
Top 3%
Sector rank · raised
Series D+
Latest stage · inferred · Wed Dec 17 2025 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)

Goodfire AI, Inc. looks fair against its niche peers and is active on financing cadence.

Synthesized from the figures below est. — every claim rests on a number shown on this page. Valuation uses the ai/ml sector profile.

Analyst read est. — computed against this company's niche peers in the same era. Inputs shown; not a quoted figure.

Fair
  • Modeled value is 0.89× the median modeled value of Series D+ AI / ML companies in 2025–2027 (8 peers) — value vs value, same stage and era.
  • Within the normal band (89% of peer median) for its niche.
Active
  • Last raise 6 mo ago; this sector typically re-raises about every 11 months.
  • Raising on or ahead of the sector's normal rhythm.
Leadership

No named principal in this company's public records yet — see all operators below.

Explore how these operators interlock with other companies in the operator network.

Where it sits in AI / ML

Goodfire AI, Inc. is one of 2067 AI / ML companies tracked from San Francisco. By capital raised it ranks among the largest (ahead of 98% of sector peers), and among the largest by modeled valuation est..

Ranking is computed against this company's own sector cohort — reported capital is fact; valuation tiers are modeled.

ai/ml

As reported in public records reported — not modeled.

US
Jurisdiction
Rule 506(b)
Reg D exemption
19
Investors (latest)
2023
Year incorporated
2025-12-17
First sale
Amount raised vs valuation, by round

Solid bars are reported offering amounts reported; hatched bars are the modeled post-money valuation est. — both on one shared scale so you can read raise-vs-worth at each round directly. Use the toggles to overlay data labels and the niche-peer / market average value lines.

Amount raised · realModeled valuation · estCumulative funded · real
$0$500M$1.0B$1.5B$2.0BSeries C · 2025-04-02 Raised $52M (real) Modeled valuation $409M (est)$52M$409MSeries C2025Series D+ · 2025-12-17 Raised $150M (real) Modeled valuation $1.2B (est)$150M$1.2BSeries D+2025+$150MCumulative $202M

The line shows cumulative reported funding over the period; + labels show new capital added between points when there is room. Toggle on-bar figures, plus the niche-peer and market averages, to read this company against its cohort. Benchmarks are modeled medians.

Financing ladder & sequence gaps
Series C$52.0M · 2025
Series D+$150.0M · 2025

Stages are modeled from round size (public records carry no series label). No record for: Pre-Seed, Seed, Series A, Series B — the company may have raised it under a different exemption, merged it into an adjacent record, or skipped it. Sequence completeness: 33%.

Modeled valuation trajectory
$1.2B
Base estimate est.
$833.0M
Conservative case
$1.4B
Upside case
$1.2B
Modeled post-money

Round size and date are reported; the stage label is inferred from round size (latest is Series D+a $100M–$400M round). Valuation is modeled from stage benchmarks scaled by the ai/ml sector profile. Directional, not a quoted figure.

Series C · modeled $409.0M · 2025-04-022025Series D+ · modeled $1.2B · 2025-12-172025
Model inputs · modeled:benchmark-stage-stepup-v1
12%
Dilution assumption
Implied ownership sold in the financing.
83%
Survival probability
67% low · 92% high
1.35×/yr
Annual markup
1.51×/yr upside case
0.5 yr
Elapsed time used
0.5 yr actual, capped for stale marks
ai/ml
Sector profile
Adjusts growth and survival by industry.
Financing rhythm
9 mo
Avg between rounds
$284.9M/yr
Capital velocity
1.2 yr
On record since
2025
First round
2
Rounds on file
How it compares to the market

Benchmarked against 2067 companies in AI / ML. Each bar is a median (the middle company, not an average — outliers don't skew it). Two yardsticks: real money raised (reported on Form D) and modeled value (our estimate est.). These are whole-sector medians across all stages, except the per-stage row.

Total raised — vs sector median (real $, all stages) 43× above median
This company$202.0M
Sector median$4.7M
Latest round — vs other Series D+ rounds in sector (real $, this stage) 0.9× of median
This company$150.0M
Sector median$174.5M
Modeled value — vs sector median (estimate, all stages) 44× above median
This company$1.2B
Sector median$27.9M

Raised more than 98% of sector peers (real $). Modeled value above 98% of peers (estimate).

Niche peers — same stage & era

A tighter cohort than the sector chart above — only companies at the same stage (Series D+) that last raised in the same ~3-year era, ranked by modeled value est. (not money raised). This is the exact set the analyst read compares against, so a like-for-like cohort is what makes "over/under-valued" meaningful. This company ranks #5 of 8.

This companyCohort peer
$100.0M$1.0B$10.0B$100.0M$1.0BCapital raised (log)Counsel AI Corp · Series D+ Raised $490.8M · modeled $3.1B (est)Abridge AI Inc. · Series D+ Raised $458.0M · modeled $3.0B (est)Rezolve Ai Plc · Series D+ Raised $250.0M · modeled $1.7B (est)Celestial AI Inc. · Series D+ Raised $482.0M · modeled $1.5B (est)Nomos AI, Inc. · Series D+ Raised $141.9M · modeled $873.9M (est)Pollen, Inc. · Series D+ Raised $447.0M · modeled $310.5M (est)X.Ai Corp. · Series D+ Raised $162.4M · modeled $290.3M (est)Goodfire AI, Inc. (this company) Raised $202.0M · modeled $1.2B (est)Goodfire AI, Inc.
CompanyStageRaised · realValue · estvs peer med.
Counsel AI CorpSeries D+$490.8M$3.1B2.28×
Abridge AI Inc.Series D+$458.0M$3.0B2.17×
Rezolve Ai PlcSeries D+$250.0M$1.7B1.26×
Celestial AI Inc.Series D+$482.0M$1.5B1.11×
Goodfire AI, Inc. this companySeries D+$202.0M$1.2B0.89×
Nomos AI, Inc.Series D+$141.9M$873.9M0.63×
Pollen, Inc.Series D+$447.0M$310.5M0.23×
X.Ai Corp.Series D+$162.4M$290.3M0.21×
Full financing history

Stage is inferred from round size est., not reported on the filing — a round's dollar size maps to a bucket: Pre-Seed <$1.0M · Seed $1.0M–$4.0M · Series A $4.0M–$15M · Series B $15M–$40M · Series C $40M–$100M · Series D+ $100M–$400M · Growth/Late >$400M.

StageAmount · realAnnouncedPost-money · estValue · estConf.
Series C$52.0M2025-04-02$346.9M$409.0M90%
Series D+$150.0M2025-12-17$1.2B$1.2B90%
What happened at each round

Step-up, pace versus the sector's normal cadence, and revenue/exemption moves — read straight from the reported round facts reported.

  1. Series C$52.0M2025-04-02
    • First recorded raise — entered as Series C.
    • 47 investors on this round.
  2. Series D+$150.0M2025-12-17
    • Raised 9 mo later, in step with the ~11 mo sector norm.
    • Round 2.9× larger than the prior — scaling up.
    • 19 investors on this round.
Intelligence
2026 ~Q3
Modeled next raise · ~9mo cadence
$432.4M
Modeled next size est.range $281.1M$691.9M
2.9×
Last step-up
$284.9M/yr
Capital velocity

Predictive signals are modeled est. from this company's own cadence and step-up, plus sector benchmarks — directional, not advice. Peer set and a CSV export live in your analyst workspace.

Key people & operators

Officers, directors and promoters named in this company's public recordsreported — the people who run it (not its investors). "Also runs" counts come from name-matching across all records, so verify before acting.

PersonRoleAlso runsTied since
Tom McGrath3 other2025-04
Nnamdi Iregbulem2 other2025-04
YAN-DAVID ERLICH2 other2025-12
Daniel Kang1 other2025-04
Eric Ho1 other2025-04
Daniel Balsam2025-04
Deedy Das2025-04
Registry & provenance

Goodfire AI, Inc. is an official record sourced from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). U.S. data is aggregated from SEC Form D filings.

United States
Country of record
US
Jurisdiction
2070813
SEC CIK
2023
Incorporated
Similar companies

Nearest neighbours across the whole database — matched on sector, stage and capital scale, and on shared operators (officers or directors named at both companies in public filings). A discovery shortlist, not a valuation cohort — verify before acting, the same way modeled figures are directional.

CompanySectorStageRaised · realValue · estWhy similar
AutoLab AI, Inc.AI / MLSeries D+$234.9M$1.7Bsame sector · same stage
Rezolve Ai PlcAI / MLSeries D+$250.0M$1.7Bsame sector · same stage
X.Ai Corp.AI / MLSeries D+$162.4M$290.3Msame sector · same stage
Nomos AI, Inc.AI / MLSeries D+$141.9M$873.9Msame sector · same stage
Cresta Intelligence Inc.AI / MLSeries D+$125.0M$1.5Bsame sector · same stage
Tractian LtdAI / MLSeries D+$122.9M$1.4Bsame sector · same stage
C3.ai, Inc.AI / MLSeries D+$400.9M$2.1Bsame sector · same stage
Pollen, Inc.AI / MLSeries D+$447.0M$310.5Msame sector · same stage
Semantically similar

Matched by meaning, not labels — a local language model reads each company's name, sector and description and ranks the closest in that learned space. This catches look-alikes that cross sector boundaries; the structured list above explains its matches, this one trusts the text. Directional, like every modeled signal here.

CompanySectorStageValue · estMatch
RapidFire AI, Inc.AI / MLSeries A$27.8M92%
Flamel AI, Inc.AI / MLSeed$23.6M89%
Lightning AI, Inc.AI / MLGrowth/Late$4.4B86%
Magic AI CorpAI / MLPre-Seed$37.2M86%
Outlier AI, Inc.AI / MLSeries B$959.2M85%
Omnify.Ai, Inc.AI / MLSeed$88.8M85%
Tend AI IncAI / MLSeed$88.8M85%
Vision Ai Inc.AI / MLPre-Seed$1.8M85%
Frequently asked
How much funding has Goodfire AI, Inc. raised?
Goodfire AI, Inc. has raised approximately $202.0M in disclosed capital across 2 recorded financing rounds, aggregated from public filings.
What is Goodfire AI, Inc.'s estimated valuation?
Provath's modeled valuation for Goodfire AI, Inc. is approximately $1.2B (modeled range $833.0M–$1.4B). This is an algorithmic estimate derived from round sizes and same-niche peers — not a quoted or reported figure.
What funding stage is Goodfire AI, Inc. at?
Goodfire AI, Inc.'s latest modeled financing stage is Series D+. Its most recent recorded round closed around Wed Dec 17.
What does Goodfire AI, Inc. do and where is it based?
Goodfire AI, Inc. operates in the AI / ML sector, based in San Francisco.
Explore related

See where Goodfire AI, Inc. sits in the wider market — its sector, location and stage cohorts, each with their own leaderboards and capital-flow timelines.

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