Companies · AI / ML

Lightning AI, Inc.New on the radar

San Francisco · AI / ML · refined from filed group “Other Technology

Diligence memoA one-page analyst read on Lightning AI, Inc. — recommendation, valuation, rhythm, risks.
$435.5M
Total raised · real
1
Rounds
Latest step-up
Top 2%
Sector rank · raised
Growth/Late
Latest stage · inferred · Wed Dec 24 2025 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)

Lightning AI, Inc. looks under-valued against its niche peers and is active on financing cadence.

Synthesized from the figures below est. — every claim rests on a number shown on this page. Valuation uses the ai/ml sector profile.

Analyst read est. — computed against this company's niche peers in the same era. Inputs shown; not a quoted figure.

Under-valued
  • Modeled value is 0.51× the median modeled value of Growth/Late AI / ML companies in 2025–2027 (8 peers) — value vs value, same stage and era.
Active
  • Last raise 6 mo ago; this sector typically re-raises about every 11 months.
  • Raising on or ahead of the sector's normal rhythm.
Leadership

No named principal in this company's public records yet — see all operators below.

Explore how these operators interlock with other companies in the operator network.

Where it sits in AI / ML

Lightning AI, Inc. is one of 2067 AI / ML companies tracked from San Francisco. By capital raised it ranks among the largest (ahead of 99% of sector peers), and among the largest by modeled valuation est..

Ranking is computed against this company's own sector cohort — reported capital is fact; valuation tiers are modeled.

ai/ml

As reported in public records reported — not modeled.

US
Jurisdiction
Rule 506(b)
Reg D exemption
58
Investors (latest)
2023
Year incorporated
2025-12-24
First sale
Amount raised vs valuation, by round

Solid bars are reported offering amounts reported; hatched bars are the modeled post-money valuation est. — both on one shared scale so you can read raise-vs-worth at each round directly. Use the toggles to overlay data labels and the niche-peer / market average value lines.

Amount raised · realModeled valuation · estCumulative funded · real
$0$1.3B$2.5B$3.8B$5.0BGrowth/Late · 2025-12-24 Raised $435M (real) Modeled valuation $4.4B (est)$435M$4.4BGrowth/Late2025

The line shows cumulative reported funding over the period; + labels show new capital added between points when there is room. Toggle on-bar figures, plus the niche-peer and market averages, to read this company against its cohort. Benchmarks are modeled medians.

Financing ladder & sequence gaps
Growth/Late$435.5M · 2025

Stages are modeled from round size (public records carry no series label). No record for: Pre-Seed, Seed, Series A, Series B, Series C, Series D+ — the company may have raised it under a different exemption, merged it into an adjacent record, or skipped it. Sequence completeness: 14%.

Modeled valuation trajectory
$4.4B
Base estimate est.
$3.3B
Conservative case
$5.0B
Upside case
$4.4B
Modeled post-money

Round size and date are reported; the stage label is inferred from round size (latest is Growth/Latea round over $400M). Valuation is modeled from stage benchmarks scaled by the ai/ml sector profile. Directional, not a quoted figure.

Not enough modeled valuation points to chart a trajectory.

Model inputs · modeled:benchmark-stage-stepup-v1
10%
Dilution assumption
Implied ownership sold in the financing.
88%
Survival probability
76% low · 95% high
1.30×/yr
Annual markup
1.42×/yr upside case
0.5 yr
Elapsed time used
0.5 yr actual, capped for stale marks
ai/ml
Sector profile
Adjusts growth and survival by industry.
Financing rhythm
Avg between rounds
Capital velocity
0.5 yr
On record since
2025
First round
New
First-time filer
How it compares to the market

Benchmarked against 2067 companies in AI / ML. Each bar is a median (the middle company, not an average — outliers don't skew it). Two yardsticks: real money raised (reported on Form D) and modeled value (our estimate est.). These are whole-sector medians across all stages, except the per-stage row.

Total raised — vs sector median (real $, all stages) 92× above median
This company$435.5M
Sector median$4.7M
Latest round — vs other Growth/Late rounds in sector (real $, this stage) 0.8× of median
This company$435.5M
Sector median$575.3M
Modeled value — vs sector median (estimate, all stages) 158× above median
This company$4.4B
Sector median$27.9M

Raised more than 99% of sector peers (real $). Modeled value above 99% of peers (estimate).

Niche peers — same stage & era

A tighter cohort than the sector chart above — only companies at the same stage (Growth/Late) that last raised in the same ~3-year era, ranked by modeled value est. (not money raised). This is the exact set the analyst read compares against, so a like-for-like cohort is what makes "over/under-valued" meaningful. This company ranks #6 of 8.

This companyCohort peer
$1.0B$10.0B$100.0B$100.0M$1.0B$10.0B$100.0BCapital raised (log)Databricks, Inc. · Growth/Late Raised $12.1B · modeled $41.5B (est)Genesys Cloud Services Topco LLC · Growth/Late Raised $1.8B · modeled $16.8B (est)Crusoe Energy Holdings Inc. · Growth/Late Raised $2.2B · modeled $11.0B (est)Integris AI Healthcare Group, Inc. · Growth/Late Raised $1.0B · modeled $9.5B (est)Grammarly, Inc. · Growth/Late Raised $1.4B · modeled $7.6B (est)Lovable Labs Inc · Growth/Late Raised $637.9M · modeled $4.3B (est)Snowflake Computing, Inc. · Growth/Late Raised $2.4B · modeled $3.7B (est)Lightning AI, Inc. (this company) Raised $435.5M · modeled $4.4B (est)Lightning AI, Inc.
CompanyStageRaised · realValue · estvs peer med.
Databricks, Inc.Growth/Late$12.1B$41.5B4.84×
Genesys Cloud Services Topco LLCGrowth/Late$1.8B$16.8B1.96×
Crusoe Energy Holdings Inc.Growth/Late$2.2B$11.0B1.28×
Integris AI Healthcare Group, Inc.Growth/Late$1.0B$9.5B1.11×
Grammarly, Inc.Growth/Late$1.4B$7.6B0.89×
Lightning AI, Inc. this companyGrowth/Late$435.5M$4.4B0.51×
Lovable Labs IncGrowth/Late$637.9M$4.3B0.51×
Snowflake Computing, Inc.Growth/Late$2.4B$3.7B0.43×
Full financing history

Stage is inferred from round size est., not reported on the filing — a round's dollar size maps to a bucket: Pre-Seed <$1.0M · Seed $1.0M–$4.0M · Series A $4.0M–$15M · Series B $15M–$40M · Series C $40M–$100M · Series D+ $100M–$400M · Growth/Late >$400M.

StageAmount · realAnnouncedPost-money · estValue · estConf.
Growth/Late$435.5M2025-12-24$4.4B$4.4B90%
What happened at each round

Step-up, pace versus the sector's normal cadence, and revenue/exemption moves — read straight from the reported round facts reported.

  1. Growth/Late$435.5M2025-12-24
    • First recorded raise — entered as Growth/Late.
    • 58 investors on this round.
Intelligence
Modeled next raise
$696.7M
Modeled next size est.range $452.9M$1.1B
Last step-up
Capital velocity

Predictive signals are modeled est. from this company's own cadence and step-up, plus sector benchmarks — directional, not advice. Peer set and a CSV export live in your analyst workspace.

Key people & operators

Officers, directors and promoters named in this company's public recordsreported — the people who run it (not its investors). "Also runs" counts come from name-matching across all records, so verify before acting.

PersonRoleAlso runsTied since
Amit A. Mukherjee2025-12
Carlos A. Delatorre2025-12
Ozan A. Kaya2025-12
Sam A. Yagan2025-12
Saurabh A. Giri2025-12
William A. Falcon2025-12
Registry & provenance

Lightning AI, Inc. is an official record sourced from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). U.S. data is aggregated from SEC Form D filings.

United States
Country of record
US
Jurisdiction
2101357
SEC CIK
2023
Incorporated
Similar companies

Nearest neighbours across the whole database — matched on sector, stage and capital scale, and on shared operators (officers or directors named at both companies in public filings). A discovery shortlist, not a valuation cohort — verify before acting, the same way modeled figures are directional.

CompanySectorStageRaised · realValue · estWhy similar
Lovable Labs IncAI / MLGrowth/Late$637.9M$4.3Bsame sector · same stage
Figma, Inc.AI / MLGrowth/Late$715.5M$6.4Bsame sector · same stage
Attentive Mobile Inc.AI / MLGrowth/Late$922.1M$2.0Bsame sector · same stage
Pollen, Inc.AI / MLSeries D+$447.0M$310.2Msame sector
Grammarly, Inc.AI / MLGrowth/Late$1.4B$7.6Bsame sector · same stage
Shield AI IncAI / MLSeries D+$452.7M$4.5Bsame sector
Abridge AI Inc.AI / MLSeries D+$458.0M$3.0Bsame sector
Magic AI, Inc.AI / MLSeries D+$466.2M$4.3Bsame sector
Semantically similar

Matched by meaning, not labels — a local language model reads each company's name, sector and description and ranks the closest in that learned space. This catches look-alikes that cross sector boundaries; the structured list above explains its matches, this one trusts the text. Directional, like every modeled signal here.

CompanySectorStageValue · estMatch
Electric AI, Inc.AI / MLSeries C$524.4M93%
Emerald AI, Inc.AI / MLSeries B$98.5M90%
x.ai, inc.AI / MLSeries B$245.9M90%
Obviously AI, Inc.AI / MLSeries A$41.0M90%
System AI, Inc.AI / MLPre-Seed$8.4M89%
Tend AI IncAI / MLSeed$88.8M89%
Magic AI CorpAI / MLPre-Seed$37.2M89%
Automatic AI, Inc.AI / MLPre-Seed$460K88%
Frequently asked
How much funding has Lightning AI, Inc. raised?
Lightning AI, Inc. has raised approximately $435.5M in disclosed capital across 1 recorded financing round, aggregated from public filings.
What is Lightning AI, Inc.'s estimated valuation?
Provath's modeled valuation for Lightning AI, Inc. is approximately $4.4B (modeled range $3.3B–$5.0B). This is an algorithmic estimate derived from round sizes and same-niche peers — not a quoted or reported figure.
What funding stage is Lightning AI, Inc. at?
Lightning AI, Inc.'s latest modeled financing stage is Growth/Late. Its most recent recorded round closed around Wed Dec 24.
What does Lightning AI, Inc. do and where is it based?
Lightning AI, Inc. operates in the AI / ML sector, based in San Francisco.
Explore related

See where Lightning AI, Inc. sits in the wider market — its sector, location and stage cohorts, each with their own leaderboards and capital-flow timelines.

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