Companies · Other

Substack Inc.Winter 2018Active

SAN FRANCISCO · CA, USA · Other · founded 2017 · https://substack.com

Diligence memoA one-page analyst read on Substack Inc. — recommendation, valuation, rhythm, risks.
$87.4M
Total raised · real
3
Rounds
0.1×
Latest step-up
Top 5%
Sector rank · raised
Series C
Latest stage · inferred · Wed May 17 2023 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)

Substack Inc. looks under-valued against its niche peers and is at-risk on financing cadence.

Synthesized from the figures below est. — every claim rests on a number shown on this page.

Analyst read est. — computed against this company's niche peers in the same era. Inputs shown; not a quoted figure.

Under-valued
  • Modeled value is 0.06× the median modeled value of Series C Other companies in 2022–2024 (192 peers) — value vs value, same stage and era.
At-risk
  • Last raise 3.1 yr ago; this sector typically re-raises about every 11 months.
  • Past due for a raise versus sector cadence — watch for distress or a bridge.
Leadership

No named principal in this company's public records yet — see all operators below.

Explore how these operators interlock with other companies in the operator network.

Where it sits in Other

Substack Inc. is one of 25015 Other companies tracked from SAN FRANCISCO, CA, USA, on record since 2017. By capital raised it ranks among the largest (ahead of 96% of sector peers), and mid-pack by modeled valuation est..

Ranking is computed against this company's own sector cohort — reported capital is fact; valuation tiers are modeled.

AI analyst read est. — model-extracted from this company's public description, not a verified fact. 30%

operates a technology-led product inferred from public copy

Grounded in: “You are a venture analyst

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Marketplace
Find Substack Inc. online

As reported in public records reported — not modeled.

US
Jurisdiction
Rule 506(c)
Reg D exemption
1
Investors (latest)
2023-05-17
First sale
Amount raised vs valuation, by round

Solid bars are reported offering amounts reported; hatched bars are the modeled post-money valuation est. — both on one shared scale so you can read raise-vs-worth at each round directly. Use the toggles to overlay data labels and the niche-peer / market average value lines.

Amount raised · realModeled valuation · estCumulative funded · real
$0$250M$500M$750M$1.0BSeries B · 2019-07-08 Raised $19M (real) Modeled valuation $317M (est)$19M$317MSeries B2019Series C · 2021-04-28 Raised $65M (real) Modeled valuation $946M (est)$65M$946MSeries C2021Series C · 2023-05-17 Raised $3.3M (real) Modeled valuation $32M (est)$3.3M$32MSeries C2023+$65M+$3.3MCumulative $87M

The line shows cumulative reported funding over the period; + labels show new capital added between points when there is room. Toggle on-bar figures, plus the niche-peer and market averages, to read this company against its cohort. Benchmarks are modeled medians.

Financing ladder & sequence gaps
Series B$19.1M · 2019
Series C$65.0M · 2021
Series C extension$3.3M · 2023

Stages are modeled from round size (public records carry no series label). No record for: Pre-Seed, Seed, Series A — the company may have raised it under a different exemption, merged it into an adjacent record, or skipped it. Sequence completeness: 40%.

Modeled valuation trajectory
$31.8M
Base estimate est.
$12.7M
Conservative case
$56.5M
Upside case
$21.9M
Modeled post-money

Round size and date are reported; the stage label is inferred from round size (latest is Series Ca $40M–$100M round). Valuation is modeled from stage benchmarks. Directional, not a quoted figure.

Series B · modeled $317.1M · 2019-07-082019Series C · modeled $946.3M · 2021-04-28Series C · modeled $31.8M · 2023-05-172023
Model inputs · modeled:benchmark-stage-stepup-v1
15%
Dilution assumption
Implied ownership sold in the financing.
78%
Survival probability
58% low · 90% high
1.22×/yr
Annual markup
1.40×/yr upside case
3.1 yr
Elapsed time used
3.1 yr actual, capped for stale marks
general
Sector profile
Adjusts growth and survival by industry.
Financing rhythm
23 mo
Avg between rounds
$22.6M/yr
Capital velocity
7.0 yr
On record since
2019
First round
3
Rounds on file
How it compares to the market

Benchmarked against 25015 companies in Other. Each bar is a median (the middle company, not an average — outliers don't skew it). Two yardsticks: real money raised (reported on Form D) and modeled value (our estimate est.). These are whole-sector medians across all stages, except the per-stage row.

Total raised — vs sector median (real $, all stages) 43× above median
This company$87.4M
Sector median$2.0M
Latest round — vs other Series C rounds in sector (real $, this stage) 0.1× of median
This company$3.3M
Sector median$50.0M
Modeled value — vs sector median (estimate, all stages) 1.8× above median
This company$31.8M
Sector median$17.7M

Raised more than 96% of sector peers (real $). Modeled value above 63% of peers (estimate).

Niche peers — same stage & era

A tighter cohort than the sector chart above — only companies at the same stage (Series C) that last raised in the same ~3-year era, ranked by modeled value est. (not money raised). This is the exact set the analyst read compares against, so a like-for-like cohort is what makes "over/under-valued" meaningful. This company ranks #185 of 192.

This companyCohort peer
$10.0M$100.0M$1.0B$10.0B$10.0M$100.0M$1.0BCapital raised (log)Wild Type, Inc. · Series C Raised $115.6M · modeled $1.2B (est)Thingy Thing Inc. · Series C Raised $118.4M · modeled $1.2B (est)Intelycare, Inc. · Series C Raised $142.1M · modeled $1.2B (est)CertiK Global Ltd. · Series C Raised $233.4M · modeled $1.1B (est)Ivanhoe Electric Inc. · Series C Raised $157.6M · modeled $1.0B (est)Social Life Network, Inc. · Series C Raised $202.1M · modeled $1.0B (est)Ecoark Holdings, Inc. · Series C Raised $109.6M · modeled $1.0B (est)Marcella Golf Club LLC · Series C Raised $100.0M · modeled $1.0B (est)IAFD Holdings, LP · Series C Raised $88.4M · modeled $999.4M (est)CRB Topco LLC · Series C Raised $98.7M · modeled $995.9M (est)Alera Group Ultimate Holdings, LLC · Series C Raised $100.0M · modeled $993.4M (est)Redwire Corp · Series C Raised $80.8M · modeled $971.7M (est)Substack Inc. (this company) Raised $87.4M · modeled $31.8M (est)Substack Inc.
CompanyStageRaised · realValue · estvs peer med.
Wild Type, Inc.Series C$115.6M$1.2B2.33×
Thingy Thing Inc.Series C$118.4M$1.2B2.26×
Intelycare, Inc.Series C$142.1M$1.2B2.20×
CertiK Global Ltd.Series C$233.4M$1.1B2.00×
Ivanhoe Electric Inc.Series C$157.6M$1.0B1.95×
Social Life Network, Inc.Series C$202.1M$1.0B1.91×
Ecoark Holdings, Inc.Series C$109.6M$1.0B1.88×
Marcella Golf Club LLCSeries C$100.0M$1.0B1.88×
IAFD Holdings, LPSeries C$88.4M$999.4M1.87×
CRB Topco LLCSeries C$98.7M$995.9M1.86×
Alera Group Ultimate Holdings, LLCSeries C$100.0M$993.4M1.86×
Redwire CorpSeries C$80.8M$971.7M1.82×
Substack Inc. this companySeries C$87.4M$31.8M0.06×
Full financing history

Stage is inferred from round size est., not reported on the filing — a round's dollar size maps to a bucket: Pre-Seed <$1.0M · Seed $1.0M–$4.0M · Series A $4.0M–$15M · Series B $15M–$40M · Series C $40M–$100M · Series D+ $100M–$400M · Growth/Late >$400M.

StageAmount · realAnnouncedPost-money · estValue · estConf.
Series B$19.1M2019-07-08$106.0M$317.1M90%
Series C$65.0M2021-04-28$433.3M$946.3M90%
Series C$3.3M2023-05-17$21.9M$31.8M90%
What happened at each round

Step-up, pace versus the sector's normal cadence, and revenue/exemption moves — read straight from the reported round facts reported.

  1. Series B$19.1M2019-07-08
    • First recorded raise — entered as Series B.
    • 32 investors on this round.
  2. Series C$65.0M2021-04-28
    • Raised again after 22 mo — slower than the ~11 mo sector norm.
    • Round 3.4× larger than the prior — scaling up.
    • 33 investors on this round.
  3. Series C$3.3M2023-05-17
    • Raised again after 25 mo — slower than the ~11 mo sector norm.
    • Round 19.8× smaller than the prior — bridge or down round.
    • Switched to Rule 506(c) (was Rule 506(b)).
    • 1 investor on this round.
Intelligence
2025 ~Q2
Modeled next raise · ~23mo cadence
$3.3M
Modeled next size est.range $3.3M$5.3M
0.1×
Last step-up
$22.6M/yr
Capital velocity

Predictive signals are modeled est. from this company's own cadence and step-up, plus sector benchmarks — directional, not advice. Peer set and a CSV export live in your analyst workspace.

Key people & operators

Officers, directors and promoters named in this company's public recordsreported — the people who run it (not its investors). "Also runs" counts come from name-matching across all records, so verify before acting.

PersonRoleAlso runsTied since
Andrew Chen8 other2019-07
Christopher Best2019-07
Hamish McKenzie2019-07
Registry & provenance

Substack Inc. is an official record sourced from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). U.S. data is aggregated from SEC Form D filings.

United States
Country of record
US
Jurisdiction
1783191
SEC CIK
Similar companies

Nearest neighbours across the whole database — matched on sector, stage and capital scale, and on shared operators (officers or directors named at both companies in public filings). A discovery shortlist, not a valuation cohort — verify before acting, the same way modeled figures are directional.

CompanySectorStageRaised · realValue · estWhy similar
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Virtual Kitchen Co.Food & BeverageSeries C$100.2M$876.4Mnetwork1 shared operator · same stage
Swisher Hygiene Inc.OtherSeries C$138.3M$31.0Msame sector · same stage
Checkerspot, Inc.OtherSeries B$85.9M$33.4Msame sector
Icelandic Provisions, Inc.OtherSeries B$79.2M$32.4Msame sector
OWLFI Strategic Investments, LLCOtherSeries C$3.5M$32.6Msame sector · same stage
SciAps IncOtherSeries A$57.2M$33.4Msame sector
Semantically similar

Matched by meaning, not labels — a local language model reads each company's name, sector and description and ranks the closest in that learned space. This catches look-alikes that cross sector boundaries; the structured list above explains its matches, this one trusts the text. Directional, like every modeled signal here.

CompanySectorStageValue · estMatch
FullStack IncOtherPre-Seed$8.0M70%
HockeyStack
The operating system for inbound B2B revenue
SaaS / Software69%
The Third Place
Subscriptions for neighborhood businesses
SaaS / Software68%
Free From Marketplace, Inc.OtherSeed$29.5M68%
Bulletin, Inc.
Helping retailers discover and shop the best brands on the planet
RetailingSeries A$51.2M68%
Authors Equity, Inc.OtherSeed$16.5M68%
Gigs Live
Video publishing and monetization platform for creators and artists
Gaming68%
BookClub.com, Inc.OtherSeries B$245.5M68%
Frequently asked
How much funding has Substack Inc. raised?
Substack Inc. has raised approximately $87.4M in disclosed capital across 3 recorded financing rounds, aggregated from public filings.
What is Substack Inc.'s estimated valuation?
Provath's modeled valuation for Substack Inc. is approximately $31.8M (modeled range $12.7M–$56.5M). This is an algorithmic estimate derived from round sizes and same-niche peers — not a quoted or reported figure.
What funding stage is Substack Inc. at?
Substack Inc.'s latest modeled financing stage is Series C. Its most recent recorded round closed around Wed May 17.
What does Substack Inc. do and where is it based?
Substack Inc. operates in the Other sector, based in SAN FRANCISCO, CA, USA. A place for independent writing.
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