Companies · Mining & Resources

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd

VANCOUVER · Mining & Resources · refined from filed group “Other

Diligence memoA one-page analyst read on Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd — recommendation, valuation, rhythm, risks.
$23.2M
Total raised · real
8
Rounds
86.3×
Latest step-up
Top 10%
Sector rank · raised
Series A
Latest stage · inferred · Wed Dec 20 2023 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd looks over-valued against its niche peers and is at-risk on financing cadence.

Synthesized from the figures below est. — every claim rests on a number shown on this page. Valuation uses the extractive sector profile.

Analyst read est. — computed against this company's niche peers in the same era. Inputs shown; not a quoted figure.

Over-valued
  • Modeled value is 3.73× the median modeled value of Series A Mining & Resources companies in 2022–2024 (40 peers) — value vs value, same stage and era.
  • Issuer reports no revenue, yet is modeled well above niche peers.
At-risk
  • Last raise 2.5 yr ago; this sector typically re-raises about every 11 months.
  • Past due for a raise versus sector cadence — watch for distress or a bridge.
Leadership

No named principal in this company's public records yet — see all operators below.

Explore how these operators interlock with other companies in the operator network.

Where it sits in Mining & Resources

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd is one of 701 Mining & Resources companies tracked from VANCOUVER. By capital raised it ranks among the largest (ahead of 91% of sector peers), and among the largest by modeled valuation est..

Ranking is computed against this company's own sector cohort — reported capital is fact; valuation tiers are modeled.

As reported in public records reported — not modeled.

US
Jurisdiction
No revenue
Issuer revenue
Rule 506(b)
Reg D exemption
3
Investors (latest)
2023-12-20
First sale
Amount raised vs valuation, by round

Solid bars are reported offering amounts reported; hatched bars are the modeled post-money valuation est. — both on one shared scale so you can read raise-vs-worth at each round directly. Use the toggles to overlay data labels and the niche-peer / market average value lines.

Amount raised · realModeled valuation · estCumulative funded · real
$0$13M$25M$38M$50MSeries A · 2014-12-31 Raised $7.0M (real) Modeled valuation $31M (est)Series A2014Series A · 2015-08-28 Raised $2.2M (real) Modeled valuation $9.8M (est)Series A2015Series A · 2018-12-21 Raised $2.5M (real) Modeled valuation $11M (est)Series A2018Seed · 2018-12-21 Raised $2.5M (real) Modeled valuation $14M (est)Seed2018Seed · 2018-12-21 Raised $2.5M (real) Modeled valuation $14M (est)Seed2018Series A · 2019-03-26 Raised $200K (real) Modeled valuation $874K (est)Series A2019Series A · 2020-01-15 Raised $733K (real) Modeled valuation $3.2M (est)Series A2020Series A · 2020-05-13 Raised $293K (real) Modeled valuation $1.3M (est)Series A2020Series A · 2023-12-14 Raised $117K (real) Modeled valuation $360K (est)Series A2023Series A · 2023-12-20 Raised $10M (real) Modeled valuation $31M (est)Series A2023+$2.2M+$2.5M+$2.5M+$2.5M+$200K+$733K+$293K+$117K+$10MCumulative $28M

The line shows cumulative reported funding over the period; + labels show new capital added between points when there is room. Toggle on-bar figures, plus the niche-peer and market averages, to read this company against its cohort. Benchmarks are modeled medians.

Financing ladder & sequence gaps
Series A$7.0M · 2014
Series A extension$2.2M · 2015
Series A extension$2.5M · 2018
Bridge · Series A-stage$2.5M · 2018smaller follow-on
Bridge · Series A-stage$2.5M · 2018smaller follow-on
Series A extension$200K · 2019
Series A extension$733K · 2020
Series A extension$293K · 2020
Series A extension$117K · 2023
Series A extension$10.1M · 2023

Stages are modeled from round size (public records carry no series label). No record for: Pre-Seed — the company may have raised it under a different exemption, merged it into an adjacent record, or skipped it. Sequence completeness: 67%.

Modeled valuation trajectory
$31.0M
Base estimate est.
$13.1M
Conservative case
$75.8M
Upside case
$45.9M
Modeled post-money

Round size and date are reported; the stage label is inferred from round size (latest is Series Aa $4.0M–$15M round). Valuation is modeled from stage benchmarks scaled by the extractive sector profile. Directional, not a quoted figure.

Series A · modeled $30.6M · 2014-12-312014Series A · modeled $9.8M · 2015-08-28Series A · modeled $11.1M · 2018-12-21Seed · modeled $13.7M · 2018-12-21Seed · modeled $13.7M · 2018-12-21Series A · modeled $874K · 2019-03-26Series A · modeled $3.2M · 2020-01-15Series A · modeled $1.3M · 2020-05-13Series A · modeled $360K · 2023-12-14Series A · modeled $31.0M · 2023-12-202023
Model inputs · modeled:benchmark-stage-stepup-v1
22%
Dilution assumption
Implied ownership sold in the financing.
52%
Survival probability
28% low · 71% high
1.11×/yr
Annual markup
1.39×/yr upside case
2.5 yr
Elapsed time used
2.5 yr actual, capped for stale marks
extractive
Sector profile
Adjusts growth and survival by industry.
Financing rhythm
12 mo
Avg between rounds
$2.6M/yr
Capital velocity
11.5 yr
On record since
2014
First round
10
Rounds on file
How it compares to the market

Benchmarked against 701 companies in Mining & Resources. Each bar is a median (the middle company, not an average — outliers don't skew it). Two yardsticks: real money raised (reported on Form D) and modeled value (our estimate est.). These are whole-sector medians across all stages, except the per-stage row.

Total raised — vs sector median (real $, all stages) 10× above median
This company$23.2M
Sector median$2.3M
Latest round — vs other Series A rounds in sector (real $, this stage) 2.4× above median
This company$10.1M
Sector median$4.2M
Modeled value — vs sector median (estimate, all stages) 12× above median
This company$31.0M
Sector median$2.5M

Raised more than 91% of sector peers (real $). Modeled value above 92% of peers (estimate).

Niche peers — same stage & era

A tighter cohort than the sector chart above — only companies at the same stage (Series A) that last raised in the same ~3-year era, ranked by modeled value est. (not money raised). This is the exact set the analyst read compares against, so a like-for-like cohort is what makes "over/under-valued" meaningful. This company ranks #6 of 40.

This companyCohort peer
$10.0M$100.0M$1.0M$10.0M$100.0MCapital raised (log)360 Mining, Inc. · Series A Raised $12.8M · modeled $43.7M (est)Arizona Sonoran Copper Co Inc. · Series A Raised $11.1M · modeled $35.5M (est)Reunion Gold Corp · Series A Raised $19.8M · modeled $34.8M (est)American Strategic Metals Corp. · Series A Raised $11.4M · modeled $34.4M (est)MERIT Mining Ohio, LLC · Series A Raised $10.0M · modeled $33.9M (est)Monetary Metals Bond II, LLC · Series A Raised $8.5M · modeled $29.2M (est)Liberty Gold Corp. /CAN · Series A Raised $10.5M · modeled $27.1M (est)Silver Tiger Metals Inc. · Series A Raised $7.6M · modeled $25.1M (est)Filo Mining Corp. · Series A Raised $7.5M · modeled $24.2M (est)Allied Gold Corp · Series A Raised $6.9M · modeled $21.8M (est)Contango ORE, Inc. · Series A Raised $5.7M · modeled $19.3M (est)Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (this company) Raised $23.2M · modeled $31.0M (est)Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd
CompanyStageRaised · realValue · estvs peer med.
360 Mining, Inc.Series A$12.8M$43.7M5.25×
Arizona Sonoran Copper Co Inc.Series A$11.1M$35.5M4.28×
Reunion Gold CorpSeries A$19.8M$34.8M4.19×
American Strategic Metals Corp.Series A$11.4M$34.4M4.14×
MERIT Mining Ohio, LLCSeries A$10.0M$33.9M4.08×
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd this companySeries A$23.2M$31.0M3.73×
Monetary Metals Bond II, LLCSeries A$8.5M$29.2M3.52×
Liberty Gold Corp. /CANSeries A$10.5M$27.1M3.26×
Silver Tiger Metals Inc.Series A$7.6M$25.1M3.02×
Filo Mining Corp.Series A$7.5M$24.2M2.91×
Allied Gold CorpSeries A$6.9M$21.8M2.62×
Contango ORE, Inc.Series A$5.7M$19.3M2.33×
Full financing history

Stage is inferred from round size est., not reported on the filing — a round's dollar size maps to a bucket: Pre-Seed <$1.0M · Seed $1.0M–$4.0M · Series A $4.0M–$15M · Series B $15M–$40M · Series C $40M–$100M · Series D+ $100M–$400M · Growth/Late >$400M.

StageAmount · realAnnouncedPost-money · estValue · estConf.
Series A$7.0M2014-12-31$31.8M$30.6M85%
Series A$2.2M2015-08-28$10.2M$9.8M85%
Series A$2.5M2018-12-21$11.6M$11.1M90%
Seed$2.5M2018-12-21$12.7M$13.7M90%
Seed$2.5M2018-12-21$12.7M$13.7M90%
Series A$200K2019-03-26$909K$874K90%
Series A$733K2020-01-15$3.3M$3.2M90%
Series A$293K2020-05-13$1.3M$1.3M90%
Series A$117K2023-12-14$532K$360K90%
Series A$10.1M2023-12-20$45.9M$31.0M90%
What happened at each round

Step-up, pace versus the sector's normal cadence, and revenue/exemption moves — read straight from the reported round facts reported.

  1. Series A$7.0M2014-12-31
    • First recorded raise — entered as Series A.
    • 3 investors on this round.
  2. Series A$2.2M2015-08-28
    • Raised 8 mo later, in step with the ~11 mo sector norm.
    • Round 3.1× smaller than the prior — bridge or down round.
    • 6 investors on this round.
  3. Series A$2.5M2018-12-21
    • Raised again after 40 mo — slower than the ~11 mo sector norm.
    • Round roughly the size of the prior one.
    • 4 investors on this round.
  4. Seed$2.5M2018-12-21
    • Filed alongside the prior round (same month) — likely a tranche or amendment.
    • Round roughly the size of the prior one.
    • 4 investors on this round.
  5. Seed$2.5M2018-12-21
    • Filed alongside the prior round (same month) — likely a tranche or amendment.
    • Round roughly the size of the prior one.
    • Revenue band moved No revenue → $100M+.
    • 4 investors on this round.
  6. Series A$200K2019-03-26
    • Came back fast: 3 mo vs the ~11 mo sector norm.
    • Round 12.7× smaller than the prior — bridge or down round.
    • Revenue band moved $100M+ → No revenue.
    • 1 investor on this round.
  7. Series A$733K2020-01-15
    • Raised 10 mo later, in step with the ~11 mo sector norm.
    • Round 3.7× larger than the prior — scaling up.
    • 4 investors on this round.
  8. Series A$293K2020-05-13
    • Came back fast: 4 mo vs the ~11 mo sector norm.
    • Round 2.5× smaller than the prior — bridge or down round.
    • 5 investors on this round.
  9. Series A$117K2023-12-14
    • Raised again after 43 mo — slower than the ~11 mo sector norm.
    • Round 2.5× smaller than the prior — bridge or down round.
    • 3 investors on this round.
  10. Series A$10.1M2023-12-20
    • Filed alongside the prior round (same month) — likely a tranche or amendment.
    • Round 86.3× larger than the prior — scaling up.
    • 3 investors on this round.
Intelligence
2024 ~Q4
Modeled next raise · ~12mo cadence
$30.3M
Modeled next size est.range $19.7M$48.5M
86.3×
Last step-up
$2.6M/yr
Capital velocity

Predictive signals are modeled est. from this company's own cadence and step-up, plus sector benchmarks — directional, not advice. Peer set and a CSV export live in your analyst workspace.

Key people & operators

Officers, directors and promoters named in this company's public recordsreported — the people who run it (not its investors). "Also runs" counts come from name-matching across all records, so verify before acting.

PersonRoleAlso runsTied since
RONALD W THIESSEN4 other2014-12
ROBERT A DICKINSON2 other2014-12
SCOTT D COUSENS2 other2014-12
DESMOND M BALAKRISHNAN1 other2018-12
GORDON J FRETWELL1 other2014-12
ADAM C CHODOS2023-12
B GORDON KEEP2018-12
BRUCE C JENKINS2023-12
BRUCE M JENKINS2018-12
CHRISTIAN C MILAU2023-12
CHRISTIAN GORDON MILAU2018-12
DAVID C LAING2018-12
DESMOND A BALAKRISHNAN2023-12
DOUG M ALLEN2018-12
ISABEL C SATRA2023-12
KEN C PICKERING2023-12
KENNETH W PICKERING2014-12
MARCHAND E SNYMAN2014-12
MARCHAND M SNYMAN2018-12
MARK W PETERS2023-12
MIKE C WESTERLUND2023-12
PETER E MITCHELL2014-12
PETER M ROBERTSON2018-12
PETERS M MARK2020-05
Registry & provenance

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd is an official record sourced from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). U.S. data is aggregated from SEC Form D filings.

United States
Country of record
US
Jurisdiction
1164771
SEC CIK
Similar companies

Nearest neighbours across the whole database — matched on sector, stage and capital scale, and on shared operators (officers or directors named at both companies in public filings). A discovery shortlist, not a valuation cohort — verify before acting, the same way modeled figures are directional.

CompanySectorStageRaised · realValue · estWhy similar
Heatherdale Holdings (Canada) Ltd.OtherSeed$3.2M$58.7Mnetwork3 shared operators
Eco Oro Minerals Corp.Mining & ResourcesSeries A$24.5M$10.3Msame sector · same stage
Torngat Metals LtdMining & ResourcesSeries A$21.9M$27.1Msame sector · same stage
Golden Minerals CoMining & ResourcesSeries A$21.3M$6.7Msame sector · same stage
Nevada King Gold Corp.Mining & ResourcesSeries A$25.3M$10.7Msame sector · same stage
Rise Gold Corp.Mining & ResourcesSeries A$20.9M$17.0Msame sector · same stage
Japan Gold Corp.Mining & ResourcesSeries A$20.6M$2.6Msame sector · same stage
Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp.Mining & ResourcesSeries A$20.5M$3.0Msame sector · same stage
Semantically similar

Matched by meaning, not labels — a local language model reads each company's name, sector and description and ranks the closest in that learned space. This catches look-alikes that cross sector boundaries; the structured list above explains its matches, this one trusts the text. Directional, like every modeled signal here.

CompanySectorStageValue · estMatch
Northern Vertex Mining Corp.Mining & ResourcesSeed$7.8M85%
East Asia Minerals CorpMining & ResourcesSeries B$6.5M82%
Nickel North Exploration Corp.Mining & ResourcesPre-Seed$646K81%
Kenadyr Mining (Holdings) CorpMining & ResourcesSeed$12.3M81%
Wealth Minerals Ltd.Mining & ResourcesSeed$2.6M81%
North Arrow Minerals Inc.Mining & ResourcesPre-Seed$1.1M81%
Sixty North Gold Mining Ltd.Mining & ResourcesPre-Seed$432K80%
Modern Mining Ltd.Mining & ResourcesPre-Seed$997K80%
Frequently asked
How much funding has Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd raised?
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd has raised approximately $23.2M in disclosed capital across 8 recorded financing rounds, aggregated from public filings.
What is Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd's estimated valuation?
Provath's modeled valuation for Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd is approximately $31.0M (modeled range $13.1M–$75.8M). This is an algorithmic estimate derived from round sizes and same-niche peers — not a quoted or reported figure.
What funding stage is Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd at?
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd's latest modeled financing stage is Series A. Its most recent recorded round closed around Wed Dec 20.
What does Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd do and where is it based?
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd operates in the Mining & Resources sector, based in VANCOUVER.
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