Companies · Other Health Care

Empirical Spine, Inc.

Morgan Hill · Other Health Care

Diligence memoA one-page analyst read on Empirical Spine, Inc. — recommendation, valuation, rhythm, risks.
$25.3M
Total raised · real
2
Rounds
1.8×
Latest step-up
Top 14%
Sector rank · raised
Series A
Latest stage · inferred · Fri Aug 25 2023 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)

Empirical Spine, Inc. looks over-valued against its niche peers and is at-risk on financing cadence.

Synthesized from the figures below est. — every claim rests on a number shown on this page. Valuation uses the health care sector profile.

Analyst read est. — computed against this company's niche peers in the same era. Inputs shown; not a quoted figure.

Over-valued
  • Modeled value is 2.61× the median modeled value of Series A Other Health Care companies in 2022–2024 (196 peers) — value vs value, same stage and era.
At-risk
  • Last raise 2.9 yr ago; this sector typically re-raises about every 14 months.
  • Past due for a raise versus sector cadence — watch for distress or a bridge.
Leadership

No named principal in this company's public records yet — see all operators below.

Explore how these operators interlock with other companies in the operator network.

Where it sits in Other Health Care

Empirical Spine, Inc. is one of 5377 Other Health Care companies tracked from Morgan Hill. By capital raised it ranks in the upper tier (ahead of 87% of sector peers), and in the upper tier by modeled valuation est..

Ranking is computed against this company's own sector cohort — reported capital is fact; valuation tiers are modeled.

As reported in public records reported — not modeled.

US
Jurisdiction
Rule 506(b)
Reg D exemption
58
Investors (latest)
2023-08-25
First sale
Amount raised vs valuation, by round

Solid bars are reported offering amounts reported; hatched bars are the modeled post-money valuation est. — both on one shared scale so you can read raise-vs-worth at each round directly. Use the toggles to overlay data labels and the niche-peer / market average value lines.

Amount raised · realModeled valuation · estCumulative funded · real
$0$50M$100M$150M$200MSeries A · 2021-05-25 Raised $11M (real) Modeled valuation $156M (est)$11M$156MSeries A2021Series A · 2023-08-25 Raised $8.3M (real) Modeled valuation $55M (est)$8.3M$55MSeries A2023Series A · 2023-08-25 Raised $15M (real) Modeled valuation $96M (est)$15M$96MSeries A2023+$8.3M+$15MCumulative $34M

The line shows cumulative reported funding over the period; + labels show new capital added between points when there is room. Toggle on-bar figures, plus the niche-peer and market averages, to read this company against its cohort. Benchmarks are modeled medians.

Financing ladder & sequence gaps
Series A$10.7M · 2021
Series A extension$8.3M · 2023
Series A extension$14.7M · 2023

Stages are modeled from round size (public records carry no series label). No record for: Pre-Seed, Seed — the company may have raised it under a different exemption, merged it into an adjacent record, or skipped it. Sequence completeness: 33%.

Modeled valuation trajectory
$95.8M
Base estimate est.
$18.8M
Conservative case
$252.1M
Upside case
$66.6M
Modeled post-money

Round size and date are reported; the stage label is inferred from round size (latest is Series Aa $4.0M–$15M round). Valuation is modeled from stage benchmarks scaled by the health care sector profile. Directional, not a quoted figure.

Series A · modeled $156.2M · 2021-05-252021Series A · modeled $54.5M · 2023-08-25Series A · modeled $95.8M · 2023-08-252023
Model inputs · modeled:benchmark-stage-stepup-v1
22%
Dilution assumption
Implied ownership sold in the financing.
52%
Survival probability
28% low · 71% high
1.43×/yr
Annual markup
1.80×/yr upside case
2.9 yr
Elapsed time used
2.9 yr actual, capped for stale marks
health care
Sector profile
Adjusts growth and survival by industry.
Financing rhythm
14 mo
Avg between rounds
$11.3M/yr
Capital velocity
5.1 yr
On record since
2021
First round
3
Rounds on file
How it compares to the market

Benchmarked against 5377 companies in Other Health Care. Each bar is a median (the middle company, not an average — outliers don't skew it). Two yardsticks: real money raised (reported on Form D) and modeled value (our estimate est.). These are whole-sector medians across all stages, except the per-stage row.

Total raised — vs sector median (real $, all stages) 10× above median
This company$25.3M
Sector median$2.4M
Latest round — vs other Series A rounds in sector (real $, this stage) 2.6× above median
This company$14.7M
Sector median$5.6M
Modeled value — vs sector median (estimate, all stages) 4.3× above median
This company$95.8M
Sector median$22.1M

Raised more than 87% of sector peers (real $). Modeled value above 78% of peers (estimate).

Niche peers — same stage & era

A tighter cohort than the sector chart above — only companies at the same stage (Series A) that last raised in the same ~3-year era, ranked by modeled value est. (not money raised). This is the exact set the analyst read compares against, so a like-for-like cohort is what makes "over/under-valued" meaningful. This company ranks #14 of 196.

This companyCohort peer
$10.0M$100.0M$1.0B$1.0M$10.0M$100.0MCapital raised (log)CareHarmony, Inc. · Series A Raised $17.4M · modeled $145.2M (est)Dragonfly Endoscopy Inc. · Series A Raised $12.7M · modeled $142.0M (est)NuvoAir Holdings, Inc. · Series A Raised $10.7M · modeled $125.1M (est)Post Acute Recovery, Inc. · Series A Raised $14.5M · modeled $123.0M (est)Micro Interventional Devices, Inc. · Series A Raised $14.0M · modeled $119.0M (est)Etiometry Inc. · Series A Raised $15.6M · modeled $114.7M (est)SafKan, Inc. · Series A Raised $13.0M · modeled $108.5M (est)BehaVR Holdings, Inc. · Series A Raised $12.1M · modeled $102.1M (est)Outliers Inc. · Series A Raised $13.6M · modeled $101.7M (est)RevMedica, Inc. · Series A Raised $14.2M · modeled $101.2M (est)Innovoyce LLC · Series A Raised $9.9M · modeled $97.6M (est)Prixz, Inc. · Series A Raised $9.2M · modeled $97.4M (est)Empirical Spine, Inc. (this company) Raised $25.3M · modeled $95.8M (est)Empirical Spine, Inc.
CompanyStageRaised · realValue · estvs peer med.
CareHarmony, Inc.Series A$17.4M$145.2M3.96×
Dragonfly Endoscopy Inc.Series A$12.7M$142.0M3.87×
NuvoAir Holdings, Inc.Series A$10.7M$125.1M3.41×
Post Acute Recovery, Inc.Series A$14.5M$123.0M3.35×
Micro Interventional Devices, Inc.Series A$14.0M$119.0M3.25×
Etiometry Inc.Series A$15.6M$114.7M3.13×
SafKan, Inc.Series A$13.0M$108.5M2.96×
BehaVR Holdings, Inc.Series A$12.1M$102.1M2.78×
Outliers Inc.Series A$13.6M$101.7M2.77×
RevMedica, Inc.Series A$14.2M$101.2M2.76×
Innovoyce LLCSeries A$9.9M$97.6M2.66×
Prixz, Inc.Series A$9.2M$97.4M2.66×
Empirical Spine, Inc. this companySeries A$25.3M$95.8M2.61×
Full financing history

Stage is inferred from round size est., not reported on the filing — a round's dollar size maps to a bucket: Pre-Seed <$1.0M · Seed $1.0M–$4.0M · Series A $4.0M–$15M · Series B $15M–$40M · Series C $40M–$100M · Series D+ $100M–$400M · Growth/Late >$400M.

StageAmount · realAnnouncedPost-money · estValue · estConf.
Series A$10.7M2021-05-25$48.5M$156.2M90%
Series A$8.3M2023-08-25$38.0M$54.5M90%
Series A$14.7M2023-08-25$66.6M$95.8M90%
What happened at each round

Step-up, pace versus the sector's normal cadence, and revenue/exemption moves — read straight from the reported round facts reported.

  1. Series A$10.7M2021-05-25
    • First recorded raise — entered as Series A.
    • 76 investors on this round.
  2. Series A$8.3M2023-08-25
    • Raised again after 27 mo — slower than the ~14 mo sector norm.
    • Round roughly the size of the prior one.
    • 39 investors on this round.
  3. Series A$14.7M2023-08-25
    • Filed alongside the prior round (same month) — likely a tranche or amendment.
    • Round 1.8× larger than the prior — scaling up.
    • 58 investors on this round.
Intelligence
2024 ~Q4
Modeled next raise · ~14mo cadence
$25.7M
Modeled next size est.range $16.7M$41.2M
1.8×
Last step-up
$11.3M/yr
Capital velocity

Predictive signals are modeled est. from this company's own cadence and step-up, plus sector benchmarks — directional, not advice. Peer set and a CSV export live in your analyst workspace.

Key people & operators

Officers, directors and promoters named in this company's public recordsreported — the people who run it (not its investors). "Also runs" counts come from name-matching across all records, so verify before acting.

PersonRoleAlso runsTied since
Francis P. Grillo1 other2021-05
Andrew P Offer2023-08
Don P. Johnson2021-05
Jay P Watkins2021-05
Jon P Serbousek2023-08
Kent P McCarthy2023-08
Richard Treadwell2021-05
Todd P Alamin2021-05
Registry & provenance

Empirical Spine, Inc. is an official record sourced from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). U.S. data is aggregated from SEC Form D filings.

United States
Country of record
US
Jurisdiction
1866603
SEC CIK
Similar companies

Nearest neighbours across the whole database — matched on sector, stage and capital scale, and on shared operators (officers or directors named at both companies in public filings). A discovery shortlist, not a valuation cohort — verify before acting, the same way modeled figures are directional.

CompanySectorStageRaised · realValue · estWhy similar
LoneStar Heart, Inc.Other Health CareSeries A$25.2M$84.4Msame sector · same stage
Epica International, Inc.Other Health CareSeries A$25.6M$83.4Msame sector · same stage
iVantage Health Analytics, Inc.Other Health CareSeries A$25.0M$109.9Msame sector · same stage
AtheroMed IncOther Health CareSeries A$24.7M$87.7Msame sector · same stage
Phytel IncOther Health CareSeries A$24.5M$100.9Msame sector · same stage
EndoShape, Inc.Other Health CareSeries A$28.7M$80.7Msame sector · same stage
Access Scientific IncOther Health CareSeries A$21.4M$80.7Msame sector · same stage
Ark National Holdings LLCOther Health CareSeries A$21.0M$83.0Msame sector · same stage
Semantically similar

Matched by meaning, not labels — a local language model reads each company's name, sector and description and ranks the closest in that learned space. This catches look-alikes that cross sector boundaries; the structured list above explains its matches, this one trusts the text. Directional, like every modeled signal here.

CompanySectorStageValue · estMatch
Spineovations, Inc.Other Health CarePre-Seed$3.9M86%
Element Science, Inc.Other Health CareSeries C$1.2B85%
Cardinal Spine, LLCOther Health CarePre-Seed$23.0M85%
Spine Holdings LLCOther Health CareSeries B$851.6M84%
Centinel Spine, LLCOther Health CareSeries D+$34.3M84%
Smart Spinal Solutions, Inc.Other Health CarePre-Seed$13.9M84%
Legend Spine LLCOther Health CarePre-Seed$12.5M84%
National Spine & Pain Centers Holdings, LLCOther Health CareSeries B$708.9M83%
Frequently asked
How much funding has Empirical Spine, Inc. raised?
Empirical Spine, Inc. has raised approximately $25.3M in disclosed capital across 2 recorded financing rounds, aggregated from public filings.
What is Empirical Spine, Inc.'s estimated valuation?
Provath's modeled valuation for Empirical Spine, Inc. is approximately $95.8M (modeled range $18.8M–$252.1M). This is an algorithmic estimate derived from round sizes and same-niche peers — not a quoted or reported figure.
What funding stage is Empirical Spine, Inc. at?
Empirical Spine, Inc.'s latest modeled financing stage is Series A. Its most recent recorded round closed around Fri Aug 25.
What does Empirical Spine, Inc. do and where is it based?
Empirical Spine, Inc. operates in the Other Health Care sector, based in Morgan Hill.
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