Companies · Manufacturing

Arrival

LUXEMBOURG · Manufacturing

Diligence memoA one-page analyst read on Arrival — recommendation, valuation, rhythm, risks.
$303.0M
Total raised · real
1
Rounds
Latest step-up
Top 3%
Sector rank · raised
Series D+
Latest stage · inferred · Thu Mar 23 2023 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)

Arrival looks over-valued against its niche peers and is dormant on financing cadence.

Synthesized from the figures below est. — every claim rests on a number shown on this page. Valuation uses the manufacturing sector profile.

Analyst read est. — computed against this company's niche peers in the same era. Inputs shown; not a quoted figure.

Over-valued
  • Modeled value is 1.57× the median modeled value of Series D+ Manufacturing companies in 2022–2024 (10 peers) — value vs value, same stage and era.
  • Issuer reports no revenue, yet is modeled well above niche peers.
Dormant
  • Last raise 3.3 yr ago; this sector typically re-raises about every 12 months.
  • Only one round on record and long silent — often defunct, acquired, or gone quiet.
Leadership

No named principal in this company's public records yet — see all operators below.

Explore how these operators interlock with other companies in the operator network.

Where it sits in Manufacturing

Arrival is one of 3256 Manufacturing companies tracked from LUXEMBOURG. By capital raised it ranks among the largest (ahead of 98% of sector peers), and among the largest by modeled valuation est..

Ranking is computed against this company's own sector cohort — reported capital is fact; valuation tiers are modeled.

As reported in public records reported — not modeled.

US
Jurisdiction
No revenue
Issuer revenue
Rule 506(b)
Reg D exemption
1
Investors (latest)
2020
Year incorporated
Amount raised vs valuation, by round

Solid bars are reported offering amounts reported; hatched bars are the modeled post-money valuation est. — both on one shared scale so you can read raise-vs-worth at each round directly. Use the toggles to overlay data labels and the niche-peer / market average value lines.

Amount raised · realModeled valuation · estCumulative funded · real
$0$1.3B$2.5B$3.8B$5.0BSeries D+ · 2023-03-23 Raised $303M (real) Modeled valuation $2.8B (est)$303M$2.8BSeries D+2023

The line shows cumulative reported funding over the period; + labels show new capital added between points when there is room. Toggle on-bar figures, plus the niche-peer and market averages, to read this company against its cohort. Benchmarks are modeled medians.

Financing ladder & sequence gaps
Series D+$303.0M · 2023

Stages are modeled from round size (public records carry no series label). No record for: Pre-Seed, Seed, Series A, Series B, Series C — the company may have raised it under a different exemption, merged it into an adjacent record, or skipped it. Sequence completeness: 17%.

Modeled valuation trajectory
$2.8B
Base estimate est.
$1.8B
Conservative case
$4.5B
Upside case
$2.5B
Modeled post-money

Round size and date are reported; the stage label is inferred from round size (latest is Series D+a $100M–$400M round). Valuation is modeled from stage benchmarks scaled by the manufacturing sector profile. Directional, not a quoted figure.

Not enough modeled valuation points to chart a trajectory.

Model inputs · modeled:benchmark-stage-stepup-v1
12%
Dilution assumption
Implied ownership sold in the financing.
87%
Survival probability
69% low · 96% high
1.08×/yr
Annual markup
1.21×/yr upside case
3.3 yr
Elapsed time used
3.3 yr actual, capped for stale marks
manufacturing
Sector profile
Adjusts growth and survival by industry.
Financing rhythm
Avg between rounds
Capital velocity
3.3 yr
On record since
2023
First round
1
Rounds on file
How it compares to the market

Benchmarked against 3256 companies in Manufacturing. Each bar is a median (the middle company, not an average — outliers don't skew it). Two yardsticks: real money raised (reported on Form D) and modeled value (our estimate est.). These are whole-sector medians across all stages, except the per-stage row.

Total raised — vs sector median (real $, all stages) 149× above median
This company$303.0M
Sector median$2.0M
Latest round — vs other Series D+ rounds in sector (real $, this stage) 2.8× above median
This company$303.0M
Sector median$108.6M
Modeled value — vs sector median (estimate, all stages) 233× above median
This company$2.8B
Sector median$12.0M

Raised more than 98% of sector peers (real $). Modeled value above 99% of peers (estimate).

Niche peers — same stage & era

A tighter cohort than the sector chart above — only companies at the same stage (Series D+) that last raised in the same ~3-year era, ranked by modeled value est. (not money raised). This is the exact set the analyst read compares against, so a like-for-like cohort is what makes "over/under-valued" meaningful. This company ranks #2 of 10.

This companyCohort peer
$10.0M$100.0M$1.0B$10.0B$10.0M$100.0M$1.0B$10.0BCapital raised (log)Lotus Technology Inc. · Series D+ Raised $350.0M · modeled $2.9B (est)Newlight Technologies, Inc. · Series D+ Raised $357.7M · modeled $2.5B (est)Filtration Group Equity Llc · Series D+ Raised $241.5M · modeled $2.3B (est)BPCP NSA Holdings, Inc. · Series D+ Raised $264.9M · modeled $2.2B (est)Mullen Automotive Inc. · Series D+ Raised $181.7M · modeled $1.3B (est)Banner Apex Holdings, LLC · Series D+ Raised $141.0M · modeled $1.2B (est)Re:Car, Inc. · Series D+ Raised $111.0M · modeled $1.0B (est)Bombas LLC · Series D+ Raised $279.5M · modeled $937.1M (est)Amyris, Inc. · Series D+ Raised $1.6B · modeled $77.1M (est)Arrival (this company) Raised $303.0M · modeled $2.8B (est)Arrival
CompanyStageRaised · realValue · estvs peer med.
Lotus Technology Inc.Series D+$350.0M$2.9B1.62×
Arrival this companySeries D+$303.0M$2.8B1.57×
Newlight Technologies, Inc.Series D+$357.7M$2.5B1.38×
Filtration Group Equity LlcSeries D+$241.5M$2.3B1.30×
BPCP NSA Holdings, Inc.Series D+$264.9M$2.2B1.26×
Mullen Automotive Inc.Series D+$181.7M$1.3B0.74×
Banner Apex Holdings, LLCSeries D+$141.0M$1.2B0.69×
Re:Car, Inc.Series D+$111.0M$1.0B0.57×
Bombas LLCSeries D+$279.5M$937.1M0.53×
Amyris, Inc.Series D+$1.6B$77.1M0.04×
Full financing history

Stage is inferred from round size est., not reported on the filing — a round's dollar size maps to a bucket: Pre-Seed <$1.0M · Seed $1.0M–$4.0M · Series A $4.0M–$15M · Series B $15M–$40M · Series C $40M–$100M · Series D+ $100M–$400M · Growth/Late >$400M.

StageAmount · realAnnouncedPost-money · estValue · estConf.
Series D+$303.0M2023-03-23$2.5B$2.8B90%
What happened at each round

Step-up, pace versus the sector's normal cadence, and revenue/exemption moves — read straight from the reported round facts reported.

  1. Series D+$303.0M2023-03-23
    • First recorded raise — entered as Series D+.
    • 1 investor on this round.
Intelligence
Modeled next raise
$484.8M
Modeled next size est.range $315.1M$775.7M
Last step-up
Capital velocity

Predictive signals are modeled est. from this company's own cadence and step-up, plus sector benchmarks — directional, not advice. Peer set and a CSV export live in your analyst workspace.

Key people & operators

Officers, directors and promoters named in this company's public recordsreported — the people who run it (not its investors). "Also runs" counts come from name-matching across all records, so verify before acting.

PersonRoleAlso runsTied since
Alain Kinsch2023-03
Avinash Rugoobur2023-03
Denis Sverdlov2023-03
Igor Torgov2023-03
John Wozniak2023-03
Kristen O'Hara2023-03
Michael Ableson2023-03
Rexford Tibbens2023-03
Tawni Nazario-Cranz2023-03
Registry & provenance

Arrival is an official record sourced from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). U.S. data is aggregated from SEC Form D filings.

United States
Country of record
US
Jurisdiction
1835059
SEC CIK
2020
Incorporated
Similar companies

Nearest neighbours across the whole database — matched on sector, stage and capital scale, and on shared operators (officers or directors named at both companies in public filings). A discovery shortlist, not a valuation cohort — verify before acting, the same way modeled figures are directional.

CompanySectorStageRaised · realValue · estWhy similar
CNL Strategic Capital, LLCManufacturingSeries D+$300.0M$569.4Msame sector · same stage
Nikola CorpManufacturingSeries D+$300.0M$3.2Bsame sector · same stage
DJO Finance LLCManufacturingSeries D+$298.5M$3.4Bsame sector · same stage
Picasso Parent Company, Inc.ManufacturingSeries D+$293.8M$3.3Bsame sector · same stage
AeroVironment IncManufacturingSeries D+$316.4M$1.2Bsame sector · same stage
PEM Holding Co.ManufacturingSeries D+$319.6M$706.6Msame sector · same stage
Elevance Renewable Sciences, Inc.ManufacturingSeries D+$319.9M$208.4Msame sector · same stage
Coda Holdings, Inc.ManufacturingSeries D+$286.7M$244.9Msame sector · same stage
Semantically similar

Matched by meaning, not labels — a local language model reads each company's name, sector and description and ranks the closest in that learned space. This catches look-alikes that cross sector boundaries; the structured list above explains its matches, this one trusts the text. Directional, like every modeled signal here.

CompanySectorStageValue · estMatch
N-to-1ManufacturingPre-Seed$5.3M80%
Replacement Parts Holdings LLCManufacturingSeries B$175.4M76%
Autonomous Industrial Solutions, LLCManufacturingPre-Seed$1.2M76%
Upcycled Solutions, LLCManufacturingPre-Seed$324K76%
Makers & Craftsmen, LLCManufacturingPre-Seed$3.4M75%
Advanced Concepts & Engineering, LLCManufacturingPre-Seed$3.4M75%
4E FurnitureManufacturingPre-Seed$2.3M75%
New Precision Parent, LLCManufacturingGrowth/Late$4.1B75%
Frequently asked
How much funding has Arrival raised?
Arrival has raised approximately $303.0M in disclosed capital across 1 recorded financing round, aggregated from public filings.
What is Arrival's estimated valuation?
Provath's modeled valuation for Arrival is approximately $2.8B (modeled range $1.8B–$4.5B). This is an algorithmic estimate derived from round sizes and same-niche peers — not a quoted or reported figure.
What funding stage is Arrival at?
Arrival's latest modeled financing stage is Series D+. Its most recent recorded round closed around Thu Mar 23.
What does Arrival do and where is it based?
Arrival operates in the Manufacturing sector, based in LUXEMBOURG.
Explore related

See where Arrival sits in the wider market — its sector, location and stage cohorts, each with their own leaderboards and capital-flow timelines.

Is this your company?

If you work at Arrival, claim this profile or suggest a correction. We aggregate from public filings, so help us keep your description, website and links accurate.

Is this your company? Update your profile or add contact details — and choose exactly who can reach you. Reviewed before anything is published.